CGP Grey Bets on the Future of the United Kingdom After the Brexit Decision

In “Brexit Briefly“, the forthright C.G.P. Grey commented on the currently confusing state of Britain after the decision to exit the European Union while amusingly placing speculative wagers on how the decision affects the United Kingdom as a whole.

Acting as a Brexit bookie, I’m putting 15% odds on the chance of Maximum Brexit occurring, where the UK is a fully independent nation, with total control over her trade deals and immigration and laws. …If maximum Brexit occurs, I put 97% odds on Scotland leaving the UK and staying with the EU. Add to that, if Scotland leaves, I give 45% odds of Northern Ireland leaving as well, rejoining Ireland Ireland. And, crazy as it sounds, if Scotland and Northern Ireland leave, I’ll actually put 5% odds on London leaving England, and becoming an independent city-state in the EU, which would be kind of awesome, because who doesn’t love city-states? …The politics of power here is why I give such low odds to maximum Brexit, and why I give 30% odds to the second option: literally, nothing happens. The UK government plays the stalling game forever, pretending to move forward while doing nothing. …But the last option I think is the most likely: 55% odds on a non-Brexit Brexit. … The UK could leave the European Union, slide over into the European Economic Area, and be technically correct that she’s left the EU. …This would be the most pure compromise, leaving both sides unhappy.